Forecasting religious change: a Bayesian model predicting proportional Christian change in New Zealand
For over a century, sociologists of religion have been describing declining trends in religious affiliation across most industrialized countries, a trend that Max Weber characterized as "the disenchantment of the world." Although secularization is a matter of ongoing debate, there is relat...
| Authors: | ; ; ; |
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| Format: | Electronic Article |
| Language: | English |
| Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
| Journals Online & Print: | Drawer...
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| Fernleihe: | Fernleihe für die Fachinformationsdienste |
| Published: |
Routledge
2015
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| In: |
Religion, brain & behavior
Year: 2015, Volume: 5, Issue: 1, Pages: 15-23 |
| Further subjects: | B
Bayesian models
B New Zealand B Christianity B Forecasting B Religious Change |
| Online Access: |
Volltext (lizenzpflichtig) |
| Summary: | For over a century, sociologists of religion have been describing declining trends in religious affiliation across most industrialized countries, a trend that Max Weber characterized as "the disenchantment of the world." Although secularization is a matter of ongoing debate, there is relatively little predictive modeling. Using New Zealand census data from 1966-2006, we develop a Bayesian predictive model to forecast the proportion of the population identifying as Christian in the future. A surprisingly simple linear model revealed that Christian affiliation in New Zealand has been steadily declining at a constant rate of around 0.90% per year since 1966. The model explained 97.4% of the variance in proportional change in the New Zealand Christian population over the past half-century. The model also offers testable predictions. We estimate that 46.1% of the population will identify as Christian in New Zealand in 2015, with a further decline to 41.7% by 2020. The 95% credible interval for the 2015 estimate is between 42.5% and 49.6%. The 95% credible interval for the 2020 estimate is between 37.7% and 45.8%. We consider both the strengths of this Bayesian crystal ball and its potential limitations. |
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| ISSN: | 2153-5981 |
| Contains: | Enthalten in: Religion, brain & behavior
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| Persistent identifiers: | DOI: 10.1080/2153599X.2013.824497 |