The Causal Impact of the Taliban’s Insurgency and Return to Power on Economic Well-being in Afghanistan
This study examines the causal impact of insurgency and government collapse on economic well-being in Afghanistan. Utilizing Bayesian structural time-series causal impact models, the research investigates the effects of the long-standing Taliban insurgency, the resulting insecurity, and the uncertai...
| VerfasserInnen: | ; |
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| Medienart: | Elektronisch Aufsatz |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| Verfügbarkeit prüfen: | HBZ Gateway |
| Journals Online & Print: | Lade...
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| Fernleihe: | Fernleihe für die Fachinformationsdienste |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
2023
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| In: |
The review of faith & international affairs
Jahr: 2023, Band: 21, Heft: 3, Seiten: 86-102 |
| weitere Schlagwörter: | B
income per capita
B Taliban B Afghanistan B Insurgency B economic well-being B Insecurity B aid dependency |
| Online Zugang: |
Volltext (lizenzpflichtig) |
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| 520 | |a This study examines the causal impact of insurgency and government collapse on economic well-being in Afghanistan. Utilizing Bayesian structural time-series causal impact models, the research investigates the effects of the long-standing Taliban insurgency, the resulting insecurity, and the uncertainty associated with the US policy shift and reduced international aid on Afghanistan's economic well-being. Additionally, the study conducts a counterfactual analysis to assess the hypothetical impact if the Taliban insurgency or restoration had not occurred. The findings demonstrate that international aid has not contributed to sustainable economic well-being, and that the policy shift of the US from counter-terrorism toward engaging in negotiations with the Taliban, has resulted in a significant economic decline. This research offers valuable insights into the intricate relationship between aid dependency, insurgency, political uncertainty, and economic well-being in fragile and aid-dependent states like Afghanistan. | ||
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| SYE | 0 | 0 | |a Afġānistān,Daulat-i Pādšāhī-i Afġānistān,Königreich Afghanistan,Kingdom of Afghanistan,Demokratische Republik Afghanistan,Democratic Republic of Afghanistan,Afghanistan Republic,Republic of Afghanistan,Šāhī-i Afġānistān,Ǧumhūrī-i Dimūkrātīk-i Afġānistān,Islamic Republic of Afghanistan,Afganistan,DRA,A-fu-han |