The Causal Impact of the Taliban’s Insurgency and Return to Power on Economic Well-being in Afghanistan

This study examines the causal impact of insurgency and government collapse on economic well-being in Afghanistan. Utilizing Bayesian structural time-series causal impact models, the research investigates the effects of the long-standing Taliban insurgency, the resulting insecurity, and the uncertai...

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Bibliographic Details
Authors: Shafiq, Musa (Author) ; Wafayezada, Mohammad Qasim (Author)
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
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Published: Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group 2023
In: The review of faith & international affairs
Year: 2023, Volume: 21, Issue: 3, Pages: 86-102
Further subjects:B income per capita
B Taliban
B Afghanistan
B Insurgency
B economic well-being
B Insecurity
B aid dependency
Online Access: Volltext (lizenzpflichtig)
Description
Summary:This study examines the causal impact of insurgency and government collapse on economic well-being in Afghanistan. Utilizing Bayesian structural time-series causal impact models, the research investigates the effects of the long-standing Taliban insurgency, the resulting insecurity, and the uncertainty associated with the US policy shift and reduced international aid on Afghanistan's economic well-being. Additionally, the study conducts a counterfactual analysis to assess the hypothetical impact if the Taliban insurgency or restoration had not occurred. The findings demonstrate that international aid has not contributed to sustainable economic well-being, and that the policy shift of the US from counter-terrorism toward engaging in negotiations with the Taliban, has resulted in a significant economic decline. This research offers valuable insights into the intricate relationship between aid dependency, insurgency, political uncertainty, and economic well-being in fragile and aid-dependent states like Afghanistan.
ISSN:1931-7743
Contains:Enthalten in: The review of faith & international affairs
Persistent identifiers:DOI: 10.1080/15570274.2023.2235828