Modeling Fuzzy Fidelity: Using Microsimulation to Explore Age, Period, and Cohort Effects in Secularization

This article presents a microsimulation that explores age, period, and cohort effects in the decline of religiosity in contemporary societies. The model implements a well-known and previously empirically validated theory of secularization that highlights the role of “fuzzy fidelity,” i.e., the perce...

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Authors: Puga-Gonzalez, Ivan (Author) ; Voas, David 1955- (Author) ; Kiszkiel, Łukasz (Author) ; Bacon, Rachel J. (Author) ; Wildman, Wesley J. 1961- (Author) ; Talmont-Kaminski, Konrad (Author) ; Shults, Fount LeRon 1965- (Author)
Format: Electronic Article
Language:English
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Published: Brill 2022
In: Journal of religion and demography
Year: 2022, Volume: 9, Issue: 1/2, Pages: 111-137
Further subjects:B demographic projection
B Secularization
B Cohort effects
B Religiosity
B microsimulation
Online Access: Presumably Free Access
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Summary:This article presents a microsimulation that explores age, period, and cohort effects in the decline of religiosity in contemporary societies. The model implements a well-known and previously empirically validated theory of secularization that highlights the role of “fuzzy fidelity,” i.e., the percentage of a population whose religiosity is moderate (Voas 2009). Validation of the model involved comparing its simulation results to shifts in religiosity over 9 waves of the European Social Survey. Simulation experiments suggest that a cohort effect, based on weakened transmission of religiosity as a function of the social environment, appears to be the best explanation for secularization in the societies studied, both for the population as a whole and for the proportions of religious, fuzzy, and secular people.
ISSN:2589-742X
Contains:Enthalten in: Journal of religion and demography
Persistent identifiers:DOI: 10.1163/2589742x-bja10012